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New Data on the Global Burden of Disease and Progress Towards Targets of the Sustainable Development Goals

At Global 2030, we compile newly published data by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to address major global challenges that result from limited access to vital resources such as food, clean air or health care. We utilize the study in topics covered by our data-driven review on the most important global challenges.

Additionally, we use the new data to assess trends towards major targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that the members of the United Nations (UN) committed to in 2015 for 2030. Indicators are similar to the official UN indicators.

... more on "New Data on the Global Burden of Disease ..."

World Refugee Day: Global Trends of Forced Displacement

On today's World Refugee Day, Global2030 summarizes the latest figures from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

... more on "World Refugee Day: Global Trends of Forced Displacement" (20 June 2020)

How Serious Is the COVID-19 Pandemic and
How Long Will It Have to Be Mitigated?

These are the questions addressed in a new study by Imperial College London, conducted in collaboration with the WHO and other institutions. The authors stress that the results of their models are not forecasts, but indicate the magnitude of the problem and important influencing factors. The effects will depend above all on action in the coming weeks and months (p. 3).

... more on "How Serious Is the COVID-19 Pandemic ..." (29 March 2020)

Achievements of the Time-Bound MDG Targets

Title page of the MDG targets assessment. Global2030 released the first comprehensive assessment of all time-bound targets of the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals. The report, which comes following the close of the MDG time frame, documents the achievements and the shortcomings of the targets.

A key finding is that 8 of the 15 MDG targets reached between 80 and 320% of their goals, with most achieving about 150%. It also calculates the number of annual deaths prevented since the introduction of the targets to be between 6.85 million and 8.75 million. The child mortality target is found to be the biggest life saver. Furthermore, the pace of progress is shown to have increased in most indicators of the MDG targets. The report will be sent to heads of states, UN organizations and business companies.

P.S.: A summary of the report was released at Deliver2030 - external., which is run by the Overseas Development Institute (ODI).

... more on "Achievements of the Time-Bound MDG Targets"

Download: Global2030: Achievements and Unfinished Business of the Time-Bound MDG Targets - PDF, 10 pages plus annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 1.4MB (kilobytes)

Internship Placements for Refugees

Global2030 offers internships or volunteering placements for refugees with a scientific background. See www.Global2030.net/refugees.

Global2015 Project Renamed to Global2030

Logos of Global2015 and Global2030 (animated). Global2030 is the new name for the successor project of Global2015. The name change is related to the close of 2015 as the main target year of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the adoption of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. As Global2015 did, Global2030 monitors the most important global challenges including, among other topics, all MDGs and many SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals). The legal name of the registered association (Global2015 e.V.) will also be changed but we intend not to include a year number (in case new global challenges appear after 2030).

SDG Targets: Strengths and Weaknesses

Title page of the presentation on the SDG targets. Global2015 presented its evaluation of the SDG targets at the Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment (IZT - external.). Using our data collection, a balanced assessment revealed the extent to which the goals are realistically achievable and those goals that will require extensive efforts from stakeholders. The presentation addressed shortcomings of the SDGs where tangible targets were missing and important issues were absent. However, the overall assessment revealed the strengths of the SDG targets and potential to achieve positive results by 2030.

Download: Global2015: Stärken und Schwächen der SDG-Targets - German - PDF (in German, with most diagrams in English), 32 presentation slides, PDF (Portable Document Format), 971KB (kilobytes)

Fact Sheet on Trends of Old and New SDG Topics

Title page of the fact sheet on trends. In line with a series of our latest publications, Global2015 submitted a fact sheet on current trends to the UN negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda. The fact sheet provides trend diagrams on MDG target topics as well as new and emerging challenges. The fact sheet identifies progress, setbacks and new topics for the SDG targets. It utilizes annual trend data series from the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study and includes a comparison with the most recent WHO and UNAIDS trend data.

Download: Fact Sheet: Trends of Old and New Post-2015 Challenges - PDF, 5 pages plus an 8-page annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 404KB (kilobytes)

Fact Sheets on Post-2015 Targets and Indicators

Title page of the fact sheet on tweaking selected targets. Two further fact sheets of our series have been submitted by Global2015 to the UN negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda. The first fact sheet contributes to the tweaking of the post-2015 targets. It focusses on 8 SDG targets and provides proposals for changes as small as possible to make these targets more clearly quantifiable, to specify x-values in the draft or to preserve the intended aspiration. Our work is evidence-based and all recommendations are fully in line with the proposed post-2015 development agenda.

The second fact sheet proposes indicators for 17 selected SDG targets based on publicly available data. It was also submitted to the UN Statistical Commission (UNSC - external.) (see stakeholder feedback - external.).

Downloads:

Fact Sheet on Infectious Diseases

Title page of the fact sheet on infectious diseases. The second fact sheet of our series was submitted by Global2015 to the UN negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda. The fact sheet focusses on target 3.3 on infectious diseases, which was proposed by the UN Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals (OWG). The fact sheet can contribute to the technical proofing of the SDG targets. The evidence-based recommendations are fully in line with the proposed post-2015 development agenda and do not refer to any controversial topics or risk unravelling the package of the SDGs.

The fact sheet provides a comparison of the contagious diseases with the highest numbers of deaths. For selected diseases – each on individual pages –, it presents the latest trend data and a data-derived recommendation of an ambitious but achievable target level for 2030.

Download: Fact Sheet: UN OWG Target 3.3 on Infectious Diseases - PDF, 6 pages plus a 6-page annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 399KB (kilobytes)

Fact Sheet on Safe and Secure Working Environments

Title page of the fact sheet on safe and secure working environments. The first fact sheet of an upcoming series was submitted by Global2015 to the UN negotiations on the post-2015 development agenda. The fact sheet focusses on target 8.8 on safe and secure working environments, which was proposed by the UN Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals (OWG).

The fact sheet provides a comparison with other major global topics in terms of relative importance. Furthermore, it presents latest trend data and a data-derived recommendation of an ambitious but achievable target level for 2030. The fact sheet is based on the latest available data, in particular from the ILO, the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2015 and the WHO Global Health Estimates 2014.

Download: Fact Sheet: UN OWG Target 8.8 on Safe and Secure Working Environments - PDF, 2 pages plus a 2-page annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 179KB (kilobytes)

Further fact sheets are being prepared, and you can register for receiving them at our fact sheets page.
 

Data-derived Recommendations for Post-2015 Targets

Title page of the proposal for the UN negotiations. Global2015 submitted a new proposal for the UN negotiations on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It addresses several open issues of the ongoing negotiations. The proposal provides an assessment of trend changes achieved by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and derives from that an average level of aspiration for the SDGs. Furthermore, it suggests an approach to define global targets that accommodates the consideration of national trends and country conditions. Additionally, the proposal identifies major topics for the post-2015 agenda, based on the latest data on mortality and economic losses. This includes the update of the Global Burden of Disease study from December 2014 and January 2015.
Finally, the proposal suggests framing or clustering the 17 SDGs into a small number of summary objectives, in order to facilitate effective communication.

Download of the proposal: Data-derived Recommendations for Post-2015 Targets - PDF, 15 pages plus a 17 page annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 818KB (kilobytes)
 

Data-based Recommendations on Targets Proposed

Title page of the proposal to the UN OWG. Global2015 submitted "Data-based Recommendations on Targets Proposed" to the UN Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals (OWG- external.. The OWG has developed targets which continue on from the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which have an end date of 2015. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intended to cover the time frame up to 2030 and will be agreed upon by the UN General Assembly.

The data and diagrams in our paper show both progress and setbacks among major global challenges, including MDG topics, between 1990 and 2010. Currently most major global challenges, though not all, are covered by time-bound and quantifiable targets proposed by the UN OWG. In particular, our paper provides data and suggestions on seven post-2015 targets proposed by the OWG, with regard to epidemics, air pollution and occupational safety etc.

Progress diagram: reduction in numbers of annual deaths 1990-2010. The paper is a pre-release excerpt of an upcoming update of our previous publication "Assessing Priorities for Rio+20" (see below). It utilizes data from many trustworthy sources such as the latest version of the Global Burden of Disease study and the WHO Global Health Estimates of June 2014.

Diagram on the infectious diseases with highest numbers of deaths per year. P.S.: The final UN OWG outcome document - external. includes now: "by 2030 … combat hepatitis, water-borne diseases, and other communicable diseases". A further post-2015 target has now been made time-bound: "by 2030 ensure universal access to sexual and reproductive health care services, including for family planning, information and education". These changes are concurrent with recommendations made by Global2015.

Download of the proposal: Data-based Recommendations on Targets Proposed by the UN OWG - PDF, 11 pages plus a 22 page annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 725KB (kilobytes)
 

Assessing Priorities for Rio+20

Title page of the Rio+20 proposal. A proposal was written by Global2015 for the preparation of "Rio+20", the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, which will take place in June 2012. The objective of Rio+20 - external. is to secure renewed political commitment for sustainable development, assess the progress to date, and address new and emerging challenges.

The Global2015 proposal focuses on providing neutral information on major global challenges. This includes prioritizing the most urgent challenges that the world faces today, and identifying which issues have made the most progress and which have been neglected. The data on global challenges has been updated and diagrams have been included to show the comparative relevancies of the major global challenges, the progress made on issues, and target accomplishments. The proposal has been sent to the heads of appropriate UN [United Nations] bodies along with other international organizations involved in the preparation of Rio+20.

Download of the proposal: Assessing Priorities for Rio+20 - PDF, 9 pages plus a 38 page annex, PDF (Portable Document Format), 1.3MB (megabytes)
 

Report for the UN High-Level Meeting on AIDS

Global2015 has created a report on "HIV/AIDS in the Context of Other Global Challenges". The purpose of the report is to assist decision-makers in assessing priorities for appropriate action, taking into consideration global challenges interlinking with HIV/AIDS. Heads of government, ambassadors to the UN [United Nations], and the heads of related UN bodies were provided with the report, in regard to the High-Level Meeting on AIDS of the UN General Assembly (8-10 June 2011). The presidents of Switzerland and the USA (United States of America), governments from countries such as Australia, Brazil and the UK (United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland), as well as the EU (European Union) Commission and the WHO (World Health Organization), responded with their appreciation of the objective and comprehensive nature of the analysis.

More on the report
 

Survey Presented at WHO/SIGN Conference

Global2015 was invited to present its Global Challenges Survey at the annual meeting of the Safe Injection Global Network (SIGN), which is hosted by the World Health Organization (WHO). 135 registered participants from 28 countries attended the conference, which lasted from the 9th to the 11th of November, 2010 in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates.
  Feedback on this first international presentation of the Global Challenges Survey was very positive, and several participants agreed to give expert reviews of the draft survey.

More on the presentation
 

Special Edition for the UN MDG Summit

A Special Edition of the Global Challenges Survey was created for the United Nations Summit on the Millennium Development Goals (High-Level Plenary Meeting of the UN General Assembly, 20-22 September 2010).
  The updated survey by Global2015 covers most of the Millennium targets as well as other important global challenges. Global2015 has provided the survey to world leaders and UN representatives, and will continue to monitor the most urgent global challenges to encourage further action.

To the Global Challenges Survey, September 2010 …
 

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November 10, 2020 Health and SDG Targets
New data by the Global Burden of Disease Study: Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years in 2000 to 73.5 years in 2019.
Finding by the IHME published in The Lancet magazine.
We compile newly published data by the GBD study to address major global challenges that result from limited access to vital resources such as food, clean air or health care. We utilize the study in topics covered by our data-driven review on the most important global challenges.
Using newly published data by the GBD study, we assess trends towards major targets of the Sustainable Development Goals set in 2015 for 2030. Indicators are similar to official UN indicators.
Is the world on track?
Sources: The Lancet - external., Global2030.

Outdoor Air Pollution
Health risks from outdoor air pollution were related to 4.14 million deaths worldwide in 2019, an increase of 23.3% since 2010. Data by the latest GBD study of IHME.
SDG target 3.9 pledges: "By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths … from … air … pollution". The trend is diverting from the target: deaths increased by 7.0% from 2015 to 2019, says the GBD study.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Hunger
Child and maternal malnutrition led to at least 2.94 million deaths globally in 2019. This death toll decreased by 30.6% since 2010, states new GBDstudy.
SDG target 2.1 states: "By 2030, end hunger". However, incidence of different nutritional deficiencies changed by +19 to −9.9% globally from 2015 to 2019, vastly insufficient to meet the target.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Pneumonia
Lower respiratory infections – primarily pneumonia – claimed a death toll of 2.49 million lives in 2019, showing minimal improvement since 2010 (2%). This is by far the top killer among infectious diseases.
The WHO supports countries to "reduce mortality from pneumonia in children less than 5 years of age to fewer than 3 per 1000 live births" by 2025. 20 countries exceeded this level in 2010, and 10 in 2019 – progress not on track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Indoor Air Pollution
Indoor air pollution, resulting from burning solid fuels for cooking and heating, was linked to 2.31 million deaths in 2019. Deaths decreased by 23.8% since 2010, says GBD study.
SDG target 3.9 strives to "substantially reduce" deaths from air pollution by 2030. Deaths related to indoor air pollution fell by 10.5% 2015-2019, = 33% in 2030. Dependent on interpretation of "substantially": on/off track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Neonatal Disorders
Neonatal disorders claimed the lives of 1.88 million newborns in 2019. Through public health efforts, a reduction of 29.0% has been achieved since 2010.
SDG target 3.2: "all countries aiming to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1,000 live births" by 2030. The number of countries above that level dropped from 69 in 2015 to 65 in 2019 – clearly off track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Unsafe Water
Unsafe water sources, unsafe sanitation facilities and lack of access to handwashing facilities were related to 1.66 million deaths in 2019. A reduction of 21.8% since 2010.
SDG target 6.1 declares: "By 2030, achieve … access to safe … drinking water for all". The 9.7% drop in deaths due to a lack of safe water, sanitation and handwashing from 2015 to 2019 indicates that we are not on track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Secondhand Smoke
Secondhand smoke was related to 1.30 million deaths in 2019. This number increased by 12.8% since 2010, says the GBD study. Trend diverts from general WHO smoking target.
Source: GBD summary - external..

Occupational Diseases and Accidents
Occupational diseases and accidents led to 1.22 million deaths in 2019, with a slight increase compared to 2010 (4.1%).
SDG 8.8 of the UN aims to "promote safe and secure working environments for all workers". However, the number of deaths rose by 3.8% from 2015 to 2019, heading in the opposite direction.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Road Accidents
Road accidents claimed 1.20 million lives in 2019. The number decreased by 6.3% since 2010, as established by the new GBD study.
SDG target 3.6 pledges: "By 2020, halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents". From 2015 to 2019, deaths decreased slightly (0.3%) and injuries increased by 9.0%, so the target is likely to fail.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Tuberculosis
Tuberculosis killed 1.18 million people in 2019, 13.6% fewer than in 2010. This is the second-highest death toll among infectious diseases.
SDG target 3.3 by the UN stipulates: "By 2030, end the epidemics of … tuberculosis …". Between 2015 and 2019, new cases increased by 1.6% and deaths decreased by 7.0%. Neither is on track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Hepatitis B and C
Hepatitis B and C claimed 1.10 million lives in 2019. The death toll is the only major infectious disease that continues to increase.
SDG 3.3 outlines: "By 2030, … combat hepatitis", and WHO members agreed to reduce new hepatitis infections by 90% and deaths by 65% between 2016 and 2030. Trends are varied, but off track to meet the targets.
Source: GBD Results Tool - external..

Lead Pollution
Lead pollution was related to 902,000 deaths in 2019, having increased by 13.8% compared to 2010.
SDG target 3.9 aims: "By 2030, substantially reduce the number of deaths … from hazardous chemicals and … pollution". However, deaths attributable to lead pollution rose by 5.5% between 2015 and 2019, diverting from the target.
Source: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

HIV/AIDS
HIV/AIDS resulted in the death of 864,000 people in 2019, incl. deaths from tuberculosis co-infection. Huge efforts achieved a reduction of AIDS deaths by 37% since 2010.
SDG target 3.3 declares: "By 2030, end the epidemics of AIDS …" Between 2015 and 2019, the number of HIV infected people increased by 9.6%, new cases and deaths decreased by 11% and 16%, resp., but no trend is on track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Malaria
Malaria killed 643,000 people in 2019, predominantly children. Campaigns to fight malaria reduced the death toll by 29.3% since 2010.
SDG target 3.3 stipulates: "By 2030, end the epidemics of … malaria …". From 2015 to 2019, prevalent and new cases rose by 20% and 3.5%, resp., while malarial deaths went down by 8.5%. No trend on track
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Maternal Disorders
Maternal disorders claimed the lives of 196,000 women and girls in 2019. A reduction of 18.1% since 2010 was achieved through maternal and reproductive health.
The UN agreed upon SDG target 3.1: "By 2030, reduce the global maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 per 100,000 live births". This ratio was reduced by 3.2% from 150 in 2015 to 145 in 2019 – clearly not on track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Antimicrobial Resistance
Antimicrobial resistance killed at least 139,000 people in 2019, a decrease since 2005 (multidrug-resistant tuberculosis including extensive drug resistance and HIV co-infection).
Source: GBD Results Tool - external..

Lack of Patient Safety
Adverse effects of medical treatment (medical errors, side effects, unsafe injections etc.) led to 106,000 deaths in 2019. This is an increase of 7.9% since 2010.
Sources: GBD summary - external..

Gender Equality and Human Rights
Intimate partner violence killed 86,500 women in 2019. Since 2010, the number has decreased by 36.4%, says the GBD study.
SDG 5.2 aims to "Eliminate all forms of violence against all women and girls in the public and private spheres". IF the 14% decrease of related deaths between 2015 and 2019 were to continue, the goal MAY be reached by around 2035.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Measles
Measles resulted in the deaths of 83,400 people in 2019, mainly children. Vaccination campaigns accomplished a 60.4% reduction since 2010.
Sources: GBD summary - external..

War and Peace
Armed conflicts including terrorism claimed 63,000 lives in 2019. Compared to 2010, the death toll rose by 15.6%.
The SDGs aim to "redouble our efforts to resolve or prevent conflict" and to "Significantly reduce all forms of violence and related death rates everywhere". Mortality from armed conflicts reduced by 64% in 2015-2019, heeding the goal.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Natural Disasters
Natural disasters killed at least 6000 people in 2019. In 2010, it was more than 40-times as many (due to the magnitude 7 earthquake in Haiti).
It is stipulated in SDG target 11.5: "By 2030, significantly reduce the number of deaths … caused by disasters". The no. of deaths from natural disasters decreased by 61% from 2015 to 2019 and can so far be viewed as on track.
Sources: GBD summary - external., GBD Results Tool - external..

Emerging Epidemics
The COVID-19 pandemic, which has already killed more than 1 million people in 2020, is likely to result in deteriorating trends for many of the global health challenges assessed in the GBD study 2019.
Sources: IHME/Lancet press release - external..

SDG Targets
We compiled data by the new GBD study for the largest global challenges due to limited access to vital resources. Of 12 related time-bound SDG targets, only 1-2 are on track for 2030.
Five years after being established, and with most major targets not on track, the SDGs need an additional push as the MDGs needed – and received – after five years.
Sources: Global2030.

March 31, 2020 Emerging Epidemics
How serious is the COVID-19 pandemic and how long does it have to be mitigated? Global2030 provides an overview based on new studies.
New report by Imperial College London shows: Without countermeasures, the COVID-19 pandemic would claim 40 million lives – with countermeasures, 30 million deaths can be avoided.
Measures against the COVID-19 pandemic must now be expanded to avoid hospitals being overwhelmed.
If left unchecked, the COVID-19 pandemic would kill 40 million people. That could be reduced to 10.5 million, if mitigation/suppression starts at 1.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Globally, this threshold will be reached in about 1 week.
Sources: Imperial College London - external., Global2030.

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Global Challenges Survey

The Global2015 draft survey summarizes the most urgent issues for human life and needs. The information is exclusively drawn from reports of scientific institutes, UN (United Nations) organizations, national departments, and other trustworthy sources.


Global Challenges Survey, September 2010

The most recent data on global challenges can be found in our social media posts, in our latest publications and, most comprehensively, in the proposal "Assessing Priorities for Rio+20" - PDF of November 2011 (9 pages plus a 38 page annex, 1.3MB [megabytes])

 

 

Participating in the Project

Participating

Everyone is welcome to contribute ideas and suggestions to the further development of the draft overview on main global challenges. Please use the contact page. Furthermore, Global2030 approaches scientists and experts to review the draft.

After being reviewed, the completed survey report on global challenges will be published here. The purpose of the survey is to inform and motivate decision-makers in particular, but also the public, to increase their efforts to tackle the global challenges addressed.